“The Maine-iac” & “The Truth”

David vs. Goliath… ah the classic battle of the ages, (Vera 8-0) the younger (29yrs.) smaller (6ft 2in) upstart faces (Sylvia 23-3) the older (31yrs.) bigger, (6ft 8in) some might say “unpopular” combatant. Okay so not much younger and over the years Sylvia’s reported height seems to have fluctuated a tad but you get the point, on to the fighters recent performances.

Recent History:

Tim Sylvia

After scoring a round one victory by KO (head kick) over Tra Telligmanat (7-5-1) at UFC 54, and a decision over Assuerio Silva at UFN 3, Sylvia at UFC 59 got a shot at getting his belt back and avenging a loss against Andrei Arlovski (now 11-5) (then 9-3) suffered at UFC 51, Sylvia made good and reclaimed the belt with a round 1 KO of the “Pitbull”.

Controversy, …following Sylvia’s win over Arlovski a rubber match was setup at UFC 61, Sylvia won a decision in a lackluster performance that began to draw criticism that he was being to cautious and not attempting to finish the fight. At UFC 65 Sylvia faced off against Jeff “The Snowman” Monson (now 23-7) (then 22-5) winning another lackluster 5 round decision that by the fifth round really had the crowd booing and the referee instructing both men to fight, as seemingly both combatants thought they were at a dance, as they endlessly circled one and other and occasionally jabbed.

It was this display that convinced retired UFC legend Randy “The Natural” Couture (now 16-8) (then 14-8) to come out of retirement move up in weight class and challenge for the belt. Yet another five round decision followed, this time though the crowd was on its feet and “Nationwide Arena “ buzzed with seeming electricity as it became clear Couture would upset the Heavyweight Champion.

Following the fight Sylvia underwent successful back surgery to alleviate pain on the sciatic nerve caused by bulged discs, he then completed rehab and went back to training reporting that his back was at 100%.

Brandon Vera

Vera began his UFC career at UFN 2 fighting against Fabiano Scherner (now 6-4) (then 5-1) and scored a second round TKO (knees), he followed that up with an impressive win at UFC 57 over Justin Eilers (now 17-6-1) (then 9-4-1) via KO (Kick & Knee) in the first half of the first round. At UFC 60 Vera then then took on Assuerio Silva (now 13-6) (then 10-4) who was coming off the loss I mentioned earlier to “The Maine-iac” at UFN 3, after slamming Vera, Silva fell right into a guillotine choke and was submitted midway through the first round. Finally at UFC 65 he took on former UFC Heavyweight Champ Frank Mir (now 10-3) (then 9-2), Vera quickly destroyed Mir in just 1:09 of the first round unleashing viscous knees and finishing with some ground & pound.

It should be both noted that while Mir holds a win over Sylvia (the Armbar that broke his arm at UFC 48) that following the win Mir was involved in a devastating motorcycle accident & following his return to the Octagon he has not performed the same.

The long layoff… following Vera’s win over Mir he was slated to face Sylvia but contract & managerial disputes caused Vera to remain inactive for nearly a year. Vera having recently separated from his manger under very acrimonious circumstances and having resolved his contract problems with UFC which appear to have largely been the result of his former manger is now posed to take on a second former UFC Heavyweight Champ.

Prediction: Ring rust is a factor for Vera but also for Sylvia who hasn’t fought in over seven months perhaps there mutual rust will cancel each other out. There’s the issue of what mental effect Vera’s management fiasco has had on him, the question of what mental effect the loss to Couture had on Sylvia, the question of whether his back really is fully healed and if so did the layoff from training hurt his cardio, then theres the staph infection to take into account that Sylvia contracted after an outbreak at the Miletich camp, OK, OK so I’ve posed plenty of questions, now what do I think will happen…

This is one David vs. Goliath where I think it will be David losing his head, Sylvia has the experience and has shown he can bounce back from a loss, he has also shown he has KO power in his hands when he chooses to commit and I think he’ll be hungry enough to do so in this fight. Sylvia has also shown he can go the full distance so a three rounder should pose no trouble, Vera on the other hand has never left round two, not that I think the energetic Vera who could easily fight at light heavyweight will have much trouble cardio wise either.

I expect Sylvia to win it on the feet either through a decisive decision or a late TKO.

Betting: With some odds having Vera as high a favorite as -200 and Sylvia as low as +165 or better, I think “The Maine-iac” represents a strong betting opportunity as I believe he’s being underrated and I think Vera is being slightly overrated.

The “Ace” & “The Spider”

While some might see the outcome of this fight as an easy call (a win for Silva), I’ll take a look and see if thats the case by laying out some possible scenarios for the bout.

Scenario #1 “The Repeat”

In this scenario (which many are expecting) Franklin (22-2) again gets caught in the clinch of Silva (19-4) and suffers a second unwilling rhinoplasty at the business end of The Spider’s viscous knees.

Probability: Very Low, Franklin is much to crafty a fighter to repeat the same mistakes again. Look for Rich to work his jab and keep his distance until he can shoot for the takedown.

Scenario #2 ”The Boxing Match”

In this scenario Franklin is able to avoid the clinch but is hesitant to shoot for fear of eating a knee, they both trade jams and look for the big shot to end the fight.

Probability: Low, Franklin is going to have to shoot sooner or later and its probably better if it’s sooner, though if he can frustrate Silva into throwing some lazy kicks/knees he might catch one and score a takedown that way. Rich has a good ground game and holds a Brown Belt in BJJ, while Silva does hold a Black Belt we haven’t seen much in the way of submissions from him other than the choke he pulled off against a dehydrated Travis Lutter (also a Black Belt) at UFC 67.

Scenario #3 “Tap or Snap”

In this scenario Franklin gets Silva down works some ground & pound (Rich has great G&P) until he hurts Silva and then goes for a submission. Rich has four Armbars and a Kimura to his list of wins, his last an Armbar of Jorge Rivera coming at UFC 50. Rich has never been submitted while Silva was last submitted at PRIDE – Shockwave 2004 by Ryo Chonan via freak submission err… “Flying Scissor Heel Hook” and before that at PRIDE 26 via Triangle Choke.

Probability: Fair, we’ve seen Silva taken down before and we’ve seen him submitted so this is probably Rich’s best chance for victory.

My Prediction: While Franklin definitely has a chance of pulling off the victory in front of the home town crowd as Silva walks into the heart of Rich Franklin territory. Ultimately I think that the pressure of living up to the crowds expectations will prove more a liability than an asset, further while I doubt Rich will repeat the mistakes of his first encounter with “The Spider” that doesn’t mean he won’t commit new ones. It will go longer than the first bout but Silva’s superior striking will win out in the end.

Betting: Either you see a reinvigorated “Ace” scoring the takedown and winning the ground war in which case the betting odds are looking quite nice for you. Or you think (as I do,) and believe Rich will eventually be overwhelmed on the feet the question is then at odds of around -200 on Silva is it worth a bet especially taking in to account all the upsets of the past year?

I’m going to give a look warm yes, I wouldn’t bet to heavily though as I don’t believe the former champ has lost his step and could pull off what ultimately wouldn’t be that big of an upset .

The Rest

Bonnar (10-4) vs. Schafer (7-2-2)

Stephan Bonnar of the “Ultimate Fighter Finale” fame & UFC 62 infamy (he served a nine months suspension for using an anabolic steroid in a rematch with Forrest Griffin) returns to the Octagon after his victory over Mike Nickels at UFC 73 submitting (Rear Naked Choke) Nickels midway through the first round. He takes on Eric Schafer who’s coming off a loss (TKO) to Michael Bisping at UFC 66.

Look for Bonnar to score another relatively impressive win on his road back to redemption, Schafer holds a brown belt in BJJ and will be looking to take it to the ground against Bonner who’s the better striker of the pair, even if he succeeds Bonnar who trained BJJ under Carlson Gracie and who has won most of his fights via submission shouldn’t have to much trouble finishing “Ravishing Red” with a round two submission especially if he inflicts some damage on the feet first.

Starnes (8-1-1) vs. Belcher (10-3)

Bit of a toss up fight here but I’ll go with Kalib Starnes who returns after having picked up a decision over Chris Leben at UFC 71. I see a healthy Starnes (he’s been plagued with injuries since competing on the “The Ultimate Fighter”) taking this fight by decision, though a late submission wouldn’t surprise me either.

Okami (20-4) vs. MacDonald (19-8)

I like Yushin in this fight, he’s only been finished once in his fight career and his other three losses come by decision, all to respectable opposition. Speaking of decisions that also how I think he’ll win this fight. His G&P will be enough to hurt “The Athlete” but not to stop him ala the Franklin fight.

Black (21-3-1) vs. Grice (8-1)

Both fighters are coming off of submission losses suffered during there respective UFC debuts but I have to go with Black here. During his first UFC appearance he suffered badly from making the cut from welterweight to lightweight (at the weigh-ins he looked like a skeleton) but I think in this fight he’s had enough time to get used to a lower weight class and can make a safer/smarter cut to lightweight. So unless he shows up at the UFC 77 weigh-ins in costume-less holiday attire (like a skeleton again), I think he’ll keep taking this to ground and get the decision or a late submission.

Burkman (8-4) vs. Petz (13-4)

I’m taking “The People’s Warrior” in this one by decision (darn I’m picking a lot of decisions) if he’s smart he’ll look to get the fight to the ground and keep it there as long as possible. Where his wrestling will win the day.

Gurgel (11-2) vs. Robinson (8-2)

I struggled with this one but I see frequently injured Jorge Gurgel (he says he healthy for this fight and hope springs eternal that he is) taking it. To escape the decision train I seem to be on I’ll say Gurgel by round two Submission. Gurgel and Robinson will trade on the feet then the fight will go to the ground where I see him subbing the “Kid” in a battle between two quality BJJ practitioners of whom I give the edge to Gurgel.

Maia (5-0) vs. Jensen (11-2)

It’s always a pain picking a fight where an accomplished guy like Maia is making his UFC debut as the choke factor (and I’m not talking about an RNC!) remains so high, then there’s the fact that what he’s accomplished in is BJJ & not MMA but I still feel he’ll take this by a round one submission so long as he doesn’t decide to trade with Jensen.

Sources: Fight Finder & Wikipedia